Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Both composes two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will prevail here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has has important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
